The Guts to be First

People want to claim they were first but a majority of people fail at being first. Being first is hard. Being first at something when no one else around you is supporting you, or helping you, is even harder. The pioneers of the world are mocked in the moment. They are mocked and ridiculed when they start. It is only after they are successful, or in retrospect, that these pioneers are appreciated and lauded. Being first is hard. Being a pioneer takes guts. The guts to be first are not guts that everyone has.

Think of your high school or middle school dance. Assuming it went like mine, no one initially danced on the dance floor. It took small groups of people, pioneers, to start dancing before the larger groups poured in. It took a couple of people and their courage to be first, to let the rest of the students begin having fun. Some people laughed at these “first” dancers but eventually, ended up joining in themselves. The pioneers helped create the fun environment these high school dances showcase and promote.

Blackberry famously underestimated and disregarded pioneers in their industry. Apple pioneered and wowed the world with the announcement of the iPhone. Apple went against doubters and disbelievers who thought touch screens would never work and forever changed the market, and consequently, the world. Blackberry on the other hand failed to innovate and assumed consumers would continue to purchase what they already knew, their Blackberrys. The pioneers of Apple won and became one of the world’s most influential and powerful companies while Blackberry phones faded into irrelevancy.

The story of Michael Burry, made famous by the movie The Big Short showcases how he correctly shorted the market ahead of the 2008 crash. He was one of the first investors to hold this opinion and position. When he shorted the market, he convinced investment firms to sell him credit default swaps against subprime deals he saw as vulnerable. As he was doing this, he suffered an investor revolt because some of the investors in his fund worried he was wrong. These investors demanded to withdraw their individual capital. Burry’s analysis proved right. He was a pioneer, a very successful one. He made a personal profit of over $100 million and his remaining investors earned more than $700 million. He was a pioneer who had guts.

Being a pioneer is unpopular. It is unpopular until you are right or successful. Then everyone becomes your fan and supports you. They will want to say they supported you from the beginning. If you are an unsuccessful pioneer, the support will never come. You will have had the guts to be first but received none of the glory. Being a pioneer is not for everyone. Being a pioneer is hard. It takes guts to be first. It takes guts to receive the glory being first yields.